Recent crossings
Delayed by at least 60 minutes, and never shows contract addresses. The real-time feed is the paid API — api.convergenceradar.com.
| Ticker | Chain | Conv wallets | Age | % vs first buy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFD | solana | 4 | 1h | +3.6% |
| 甜狗 | bsc | 4 | 1h 3m | +8.9% |
| 登高自卑行远自迩 | bsc | 9 | 1h 3m | +86.8% |
| 1 | bsc | 34 | 1h 3m | +27.2% |
| CFUND | base | 24 | 1h 8m | -0.1% |
| 绅士们 | bsc | 20 | 1h 10m | +9.5% |
| 绅士猴 | bsc | 16 | 1h 10m | +31.9% |
| pwl | solana | 4 | 1h 10m | +102.6% |
| IKIGAI | solana | 4 | 1h 11m | +168.8% |
| QQ图片 | bsc | 4 | 1h 11m | -68.9% |
| 绅士们 | bsc | 12 | 1h 11m | +59.1% |
| 白月光 | bsc | 14 | 1h 12m | +1.0% |
| BASED10 | base | 34 | 1h 18m | +39.6% |
| 龙骨焚箱 | bsc | 6 | 1h 23m | +97.3% |
| oLand | solana | 4 | 1h 23m | +3.0% |
| SEET | solana | 4 | 1h 23m | +32.3% |
| UTILITY | bsc | 5 | 1h 23m | -7.3% |
| UTILITY | bsc | 15 | 1h 24m | +90.3% |
| #0B45ED | base | 4 | 1h 25m | +64.4% |
| FLOCKHOUSE | solana | 4 | 1h 30m | -68.1% |
Track record — the full distribution
118signals measured (conv4+)
59%reached 2x
43%reached 3x
+148.0%median peak
-15.2%median @24h
26%ended below -50%
Forward paper test (out-of-sample, pre-registered rules)
| Arm | Rule | n | Mean | Median | Win rate | Reached 2x | Reached 3x | Median entry lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TP/SL | TP +200% / SL -40% / 48h | 1478 | -8.0% | -42.0% | 15.4% | 16.4% | 10.8% | 12.8min |
| Trailing | trail peak-100 / floor -40 / 48h | 1514 | -11.3% | -42.9% | 17.4% | 17.8% | 9.4% | 12.8min |
Backtest measures token peaks on candles from the crossing; forward measures from simulated entry on 15-minute polls, with fees. The gap between the two is execution reality, not a data error.
Naive buy-every-signal execution LOST money in our forward test. We publish that. Signals are timing-sensitive context, not push-button profit.
Last 7 days — best AND worst
Losers included. Not cherry-picked wins.
Best
| Ticker | Chain | Realized | Exit | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lindsay | solana | +198.0% | tp | 2026-08-20 |
| BLOSSOM | solana | +198.0% | tp | 2026-08-20 |
| Katara | solana | +198.0% | tp | 2026-08-20 |
| RUPERT | solana | +198.0% | tp | 2026-08-20 |
| GOAT | solana | +198.0% | tp | 2026-08-20 |
Worst
| Ticker | Chain | Realized | Exit | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optimi | bsc | -92.0% | no_price_rug | 2026-08-27 |
| 币安生活 | bsc | -92.0% | no_price_rug | 2026-08-27 |
| 瞎猫 | bsc | -92.0% | no_price_rug | 2026-08-27 |
| INSIDEHER | bsc | -92.0% | no_price_rug | 2026-08-27 |
| 老赵 | bsc | -92.0% | no_price_rug | 2026-08-27 |